Climate Mitigation Strategies

Energy Transformation

Electricity (25 percent of emissions) is decarbonizing fastest. Solar costs fell 90 percent since 2010, wind 70 percent. Renewable additions (500+ GW/year) must triple for net-zero alignment. Variable renewables need storage (battery costs down 90 percent), flexible demand, grid interconnection, and firm generation. Systems can reach 80-90 percent renewables with current technology.

Electrification

EVs approaching cost parity with 50-70 percent lower lifecycle emissions. Heat pumps deliver 3-5 units heat per unit electricity, cutting heating emissions 50-80 percent. Industrial electrification advancing through electric furnaces, heat pumps, and hydrogen for high-temperature processes.

Hard-to-Abate Sectors

Cement: CO2 from calcination requires capture or alternative binders. Steel: hydrogen-based direct reduction reaching commercial scale. Aviation/shipping: sustainable fuels, hydrogen, ammonia for long distances where batteries cannot work.

Carbon Removal

Most 1.5-2 degree scenarios require CDR for residual emissions. Options: reforestation, soil carbon, direct air capture, bioenergy with CCS, enhanced weathering. Current: about 2 billion tonnes/year (land use). Needed: 5-15 billion by mid-century.

Carbon Budgets

1.5 degree budget (50 percent probability): roughly 500 billion tonnes from 2020, depleting in about 12 years at current rates. 2 degree budget: roughly 1,150 billion tonnes (about 28 years). Every delay year requires steeper subsequent cuts.